By Gene Ogorodov
After the dramatic failure of US policy in Syria this fall, due, primarily, to
the diplomatic work of Pres. Vladimir Putin, it was obvious that America would look for a way to strike back at the Russian Federation. Then, as if on cue, this winter saw Kiev erupt in violent
protest against the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, which
ended on February 22 with a coup ousting the elected government in
favor of a pro-American provisional government.
In light of the recent ouster of Pres. Morsi of Egypt by elements in the Egyptian Army in the pay of the United States, which commenced with social unrest and ended with a coup, it has become obvious that the this is a modus operandi of the American Empire. The Color Revolutions of the beginning of the last decade were better disguised than Egypt, and, at the time, they might have passed for spontaneous popular uprisings, but no longer. Likewise the so-called 2014 Ukrainian Revolution is undoubtedly the product of American intervention.
Prima facie it seems that the United States has finally won a political victory over Russia after having been thwarted by Russia from achieving every major diplomatic objective in the past few years. Ukraine now stands poised to enter the European sphere. Its current masters plan to develop its economy to favor of Poland and Germany rather than Russia and Belarus. If things remain unaltered from where they stand this week, Ukraine could become like Poland, a bulwark against Russian power in Europe. With Russia's European standing threatened its power in the Middle East will vanish leaving the US free to recover from the Arab Spring and the Iraq War.
However, any hopes that the American Government might have in cementing animosity between Ukraine and Russia are illusionary. The Provisional Government may be courting the EU, but they cannot win the needed support of Germany without extending an olive branch to Russia. The last time the Ukrainian Government opposed Russia Russia cut off the supply of natural gas and oil to the pipelines in Ukraine which are the primary source of energy for Germany and Central Europe.
It is necessary for Germany and the Euro-zone that the solution in Ukraine does not provoke the Russians to cut the energy supply once again. An energy crisis would inevitably cause a recession in Germany and jeopardize the strength of the Euro. A major devaluation of the Euro in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis could spell the end for the currency. Berlin is not going to take that risk with nothing to gain but the preservation of American power. It is more likely that the Germans will come to an agreement with Yanukovych and support a coup to put him back in power than allow the Provisional Government in Ukraine to spark another crisis with Russia.
The stakes are just too high. Even if the Germans are more caviler than current events would suggest that Berlin will be the Russians cannot allow Ukraine to fall out of their sphere of influence. An unfriendly government in Kiev threatens the very existence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed at Sevastopol. Russia must do everything in its power to re-establish the previous status quo and that in turn threatens the very stability of Europe.
In ousting the legitimate Government of Ukraine the United States has committed a strategic blunder. In the early 2000's during the Color Revolutions Russia was struggling to recover from the Asian Financial collapse of the 1990's. There was no obvious way from the Russian Federation to respond to America overthrowing the legitimate governments of Central European Countries. That is no longer the case. Russia is on the ascendancy, and America is not. Its political situation both internally and externally is worse than it has been since the 19th Century. The American Empire is besieged on every front and a large number of its major allies either growing disgruntled with the status quo or growing precariously close to civil war Russia can choose at will where and when to punish the United States.
But the situation the US finds itself is worse than just a thousand vulnerable flanks on the outskirts of the Empire. It is unnecessary to recite in detail the chronic problems that are building in the US. Suffice it to say, unwittingly the United States stands on the brink of internal political chaos. The Republic is a complete shambles. In the last financial crisis 90 million people were forced out of their homes, the employment rate is less than 50 percent, and the median income is less than the cost of living in most counties in the US. Political inertia has made it nearly impossible to pass necessary reforms and rebuild decaying and obsolescent infrastructure. The unabashed alliance between the Federal Government and big business has squandered billions of dollars and disaffected the American people. Complete fiscal irresponsibility, overly expensive wars, and ubiquitous surveillance have nearly bankrupted the country.
The conditions for social unrest are present in almost every corner of the United States. The Occupy Movement has already shown that the social anger in the US can become kinetic. The US is a tinderbox ready for a spark. By directly threatening the security of the Russian Federation the United States has given the green light for Russia to do the same to the US.
It is certain that if Russia is forced to dedicate significant amounts of political capital towards resolving the threat currently posed by Ukraine they will force the United States out of the European political stage. Given the precarious internal conditions the easiest way for Russia to divert the focus of the United States away from Europe would be to fan the flames of popular unrest in America and/or its major allies. How much effort would it really require to ignite the kind of riots that have been seen in Ankara or Kiev in New York or Washington, D.C.? Presidents who live in glass houses should think twice before throwing rocks, or Molotov cocktails.
Sevastopol should have remained off limits to safeguard the general peace, but the incompetence of the current administration failed to see the danger in provoking the Russian bear without any quantifiable political advantage. American foreign policy is venial and amateurish. The Global War on Terror has been nothing more than the playing out of the sadistic fantasies of adult adolescents. It has deteriorated the security of every region in the world except North America and Western Europe and made the United States a pariah state. Now the half-baked vindictive political machinations of Obama have done what even Bush and Freedom Fries were incapable of doing--threating the peace in Europe and the rule of law in American cities.
We cannot see the final effects of the unrest in Ukraine at this point in time. All that is certain is that this latest coup will prove to be a Pandora's Box of political misfortunes for everyone involved, especially the Ukrainians.
